If you are planning to buy a home in 2026, you need to know which markets will fight you the hardest. Zillow just released its annual hottest markets forecast, and the results explain why some buyers are winning bidding wars while others cannot even get an offer accepted.
Hartford, Connecticut, claimed the top spot for 2026, dethroning Buffalo after two consecutive years at number one. But the real story is not which city sits at the top. It is the pattern driving these rankings and what it means for buyers in every market across the country.
Zillow ranked the 50 largest U.S. metros based on home price growth, how quickly homes sold, how often sellers cut prices, the share of homes selling above list price, and job growth relative to new housing permits.
Here are the top 10:
The pattern is clear. Eight of the top 10 markets are in the Northeast or on the East Coast. The common thread is constrained supply. These are places where builders have not kept up with demand, and existing homeowners have limited incentive to sell.
Hartford’s rise to number one is not random. The numbers tell a dramatic story.
Inventory in Hartford is 63% below pre-pandemic levels. That is the largest deficit of any major metro in the country. When two out of three homes sell above asking price, the market is telling you something. There are far more buyers than available homes.
Home values grew faster in Hartford than anywhere else in 2025, climbing 4.6%. Zillow projects another 3.9% appreciation in 2026. For buyers, that means every month you wait could cost you thousands. For sellers, it means pricing aggressively is not just acceptable. It is expected.
Only 16.5% of Hartford listings had a price cut in 2025. That is the second-lowest rate among major metros. Sellers are not budging because they do not have to.
If you are buying in Hartford or any of these top 10 markets, you need a real estate agent who understands hypercompetitive conditions. Someone who can write winning offers, navigate multiple-bid situations, and move fast when the right home appears.
Connect with a local real estate agent who knows how to win in competitive bidding situations.
Three forces are driving extreme competition in these specific metros.
Building has not kept pace with jobs. Zillow’s ranking weighs job growth against new home permits. In markets like San Jose, Boston, and Hartford, employers are adding positions far faster than builders are adding homes. Every new job that does not come with a corresponding housing unit tightens the market further.
The lock-in effect is strongest in expensive markets. Homeowners sitting on 3% mortgage rates have the least incentive to sell in markets where moving means buying an even more expensive replacement home. In Hartford, Buffalo, and Providence, move-up buyers face a double penalty: higher rates and higher prices. So they stay put, and inventory stays frozen.
Migration patterns favor affordable Northeast cities. Remote work reshuffled the map. Workers priced out of New York and Boston discovered that Hartford, Buffalo, and Providence offered similar quality of life at a fraction of the housing cost. That migration wave has not stopped. It has intensified.
Not every market is a battlefield. While the Northeast dominates the hot list, several major metros are tilting toward buyers.
Austin, TX — Home values have dropped 20.5% from their pandemic peak. Inventory is rising. Days on market are the longest in the country. Buyers can negotiate, request repairs, and take their time.
Tampa, FL — Prices down 12% from peak. Insurance costs and flood risk are pushing some owners to sell at any price. Buyers have leverage they did not have 18 months ago.
Phoenix, AZ — After years of explosive growth, the market has cooled significantly. Price reductions are common. New construction is creating options that did not exist during the boom.
San Antonio, TX — Steady inventory growth and moderate demand. First-time buyers can find homes at reasonable price points without competing against 15 other offers.
If you are flexible on location, the gap between a hot market and a cooling market could save you tens of thousands of dollars on the same quality of home.
Beyond the hot markets list, Zillow’s national outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic.
Home values are forecast to rise 1.7% nationally after a flat 2025. That is modest growth. Not a boom, not a decline. Just a slow return to normal appreciation.
Mortgage rates are expected to continue their gentle descent toward 6%. The combination of the Fed’s rate pause and the government’s $200 billion MBS purchase program should keep rates stable with a slight downward bias.
Home sales volume should increase modestly as affordability improves. Zillow’s chief economist Mischa Fisher noted that any real improvement in 2026 “will depend on location.” National averages mask dramatic differences between Hartford and Austin, between Buffalo and Phoenix.
That is exactly why working with a local real estate agent matters more than reading national headlines. Your market is not the national market.
A local real estate agent can show you exactly how your neighborhood compares to these national trends.
If you are buying in one of the top 10 markets, preparation is everything. Here is what successful buyers in these metros are doing differently.
Get fully underwritten, not just pre-approved. In Hartford, where 66% of homes sell above asking, a standard pre-approval letter does not stand out. A fully underwritten approval tells the seller your financing is essentially guaranteed. It is the difference between winning and losing when five offers hit the table.
Use rent reporting to boost your credit. Zillow’s own research shows that reporting on-time rent payments can meaningfully improve credit scores. A higher score means a better rate, which means a higher maximum purchase price in competitive markets.
Shop at least three to five lenders. Even in hot markets, mortgage quotes can vary by 0.25% or more between lenders. On a $300,000 loan, that difference adds up to thousands over the life of the mortgage. Do not accept the first rate you are offered.
Work with an agent who wins bidding wars. This is not the market for a part-time agent or a family friend doing you a favor. You need someone who has closed deals in multiple-offer situations, who knows what escalation clauses to write, and who has relationships with listing agents in your target neighborhoods.
Set a walk-away number before you start. Emotional bidding is how buyers overpay by $30,000 in the heat of the moment. Decide your maximum before you ever step inside a home. Your agent can help you determine what that number should be based on comparable sales.
If you own a home in one of the top 10 markets, you are sitting on a significant advantage. But do not take it for granted.
Price cuts are rare in these metros, but overpricing still backfires. Even in Hartford, the 16.5% of sellers who did cut their price likely started too high. Your real estate agent can show you the exact sweet spot where you attract maximum competition without scaring buyers away.
Timing matters. Spring 2026 is expected to bring more buyers as rates stabilize and seasonal demand increases. Listing in February or March means hitting the market before inventory competition peaks. Sellers who wait until June may face more competition from other listings.
Presentation sells in any market. Even when homes go above asking, the ones that sell fastest and highest are the ones that show well. Professional photos, clean staging, and strategic upgrades create the urgency that drives multiple offers.
Find a top-rated real estate agent who can help you price strategically and attract competing offers.
Zillow’s 2026 hottest markets list confirms what real estate agents on the ground already know. The housing market is not one market. It is hundreds of local markets, each with its own dynamics, inventory levels, and competitive pressures.
If you are buying in Hartford, Buffalo, or San Jose, you need to be prepared for war. Strong financing, a skilled agent, and a willingness to act fast are non-negotiable.
If you are buying in Austin, Tampa, or Phoenix, you have time and leverage. Use it. Negotiate hard, inspect everything, and do not settle for a home that does not meet your needs.
Either way, the most important decision you make is not which home to buy. It is which real estate agent to work with. In hot markets, the right agent is the difference between getting the home and getting outbid. In cooling markets, the right agent is the difference between paying fair value and overpaying.
The data is clear. The question is what you do with it.
Richard Kastl has been a real estate investor since 2018 and is an entrepreneur with expertise as a web developer, digital marketer, copywriter, conversion optimizer, AI enthusiast, and overall talent stacker. He combines his technical skills with real estate knowledge to provide valuable insights and help people make informed decisions in their property journey.
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